Ranked risk register, showing top five risks to project schedule.

Risk Rank Sum of Expected Delays to all

Affected Activities (Months) Risk Event

1 4.6 C4. System-wide construction staging issues

2 2.5 E9. Delay in PHM 125 approvals

3 1.9 C23. Other construction duration uncertainty (other than identified separately)

4 1.9 D4a. Uncertainty in structure design - municipal replacement structure

5 1.6 D3a. Uncertainty in structure design for one bridge replacement

The risk register is also a tool for monitoring projects from concept to final construction and adjusting expectations along the way. The closer the activity gets to completion, the more certain the management team will be about total costs. Such a risk analysis is an ideal complement to MTO's current Value Engineering and Risk Management processes.

Washington State's Department of Transportation (WSDOT) has pioneered this innovative approach using a procedure they call the Cost Estimate Validation Process (CEVP). WSDOT tried a new estimation technique after their Route 167 expansion experiences that started with a cost estimate of $150 million and ended ten years later at a cost of $972 million. "We knew we had to do something to develop better estimates earlier, and we had to figure out a way to talk about estimates with the public," said Jennifer Brown, a WSDOT program manager. By the end of 2003, ten large WSDOT transportation projects and over 100 smaller projects had been reviewed using CEVP.

WSDOT's use of probability-based (risk) methods to estimate infrastructure costs has generated considerable interest across North America, primarily for proactive financial and project management. MTO has recently applied this process to the planned widening of the QEW through St. Catharines and several projects in Windsor.

Lastly, by using the results of this process as a communication tool, public officials have been able to demonstrate that they have a process in place for managing public funds. Risk-based cost and schedule analysis allows for identifying, prioritizing and addressing problems before they become major issues, which is one of the best ways to reduce project disruption, cost over-runs, and delays. "WSDOT has performed an unprecedented public service with these latest cost estimates," wrote the Seattle Post-Intelligencer in an editorial in June 2002, "It is a much needed dose of fiscal reality."